by Dr. Piyush Mathur

In its November 2023 assessment of the unfolding situation in the Gaza Strip, the Warsaw-based Asia Research Centre (ARC) has given a thumbs-down to how Israel has been playing its part since regaining control of the areas that Hamas had attacked on October 7, 2023.

Pointedly rejecting the efficacy of a full-scale ground attack, the ARC’s Brief No. 106 claims that such an attack is unlikely to allow Israel to achieve its objective of destroying Hamas, whose decentralized leadership cannot be an easy target—and whose logistical support basis would thus be even more difficult to destroy.  A land invasion would also fail to dilute the passion to fight Israel among the next generations of Palestinians—who are likelier to get radicalized, instead, because of it. But unless Israel achieves at least one of the above objectives, it cannot destroy Hamas qua terrorist organization—going by the historical records of how terrorist organizations tend to get destroyed, the brief notes.

Referencing Israel's high losses in the Lebanon war of 2006, the brief also hints at a relatively pessimistic scenario for Israel's ground invasion itself—which (not unlike the Lebanon war) would force Israel 'to face the enemy in the territory prepared by it, including in the highly fortified tunnels.'  Here, the brief cites Israel's continued dependence on M113s—which had failed in Lebanon—to make the point that Israel lacks 'the equipment to fight in urban areas'.

The brief surmises, in line with a lot of media commentaries worldwide, that the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu would lose his job once the military operation is over. Among the war’s international repercussions, the brief suggests that it serves Iran's interests in pushing up crude oil prices and delaying the normalization of Israel-Saudi Arabia ties.  Noting that Iran has been restrained so far, the brief also underscores—again in line with the global public opinion as expressed in the media and social media—the rising prospects of 'regional escalation' with each new day added to Israel's invasion of Palestine.

The brief outlines the following three possible reasons behind Hamas’ choice to attack Israel at this point in time:  It would have spotted an opportunity in the Israeli military’s divisions on the recent judicial overhaul in Israel; it would have wanted to spoil an evolving plan between Israel and Saudi Arabia to sign a peace treaty; and it would have wanted to prevent further normalization of ties between Israel and Arab states generally (given that Israel had already accomplished that type of a feat with the United Arab Emirates as well as Bahrain).

A scenario that the ARC brief precludes

The brief does not mention or speculate about the prospect of Israel’s absorption of the Gaza Strip into its own territory or its full-on colonization thereof. While Netanyahu has ruled out those prospects as Israel’s objectives in a recent (November 9) interview to Fox News, he has also precluded a timetable for ending Israel’s ongoing incursion into the Gaza Strip—which was a kind of hostile colony of Israel anyway far ahead of Hamas’ incursion into Israel on October 7. (Through Egyptian support, Israel has been blockading the Gaza Strip since 2005—a blockade that became particularly strict, stifling under Netanyahu.)

Nor is it the case that a civilian government—acceptable to Palestinians (and Israelis)—could be readily agreed upon or even visualized as of now anyway, especially since the Palestinian Authority (PA), under the 88-year old Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, is far from popular in the West Bank while lacking support almost entirely in the Gaza Strip, which has been ruled by Hamas since 2006.

Given that Israel has no timetable for ending its incursion—what with Hamas’ eradication seeming like an improbability according to the brief itself—it does seem as if the Gaza Strip will be made to serve as Israel’s garrison town (or a heavily militarized colony) in the foreseeable future.

Even if the PA or some selected team of Palestinian civilians is made to rule Palestine, the arrangement would remain a colonial one so long as Palestine is not accorded full sovereignty—with at least an optimal self-defence apparatus, perhaps along the lines of Japan’s Article 9.

Concluding notes

As for Netanyahu’s disclaimer to Fox News, it appears to have been driven by the pressure put on him by the United States (US) to make concessional gestures—given that the international opinion had turned against Israel (and the US) lately in how this conflict is being handled; moreover, the US president, looking to be re-elected in November 2024, cannot afford to lose any further support inside his liberal-left base, which includes anti-colonial sympathizers of Palestine.

Titled ‘Potential implications of the Israel-Hamas conflict’, the ARC’s brief is authored by Kamil Wysokiński—and can be downloaded here.

The ARC is part of the Centre for Security Studies at Poland’s topmost military academy, the War Studies University (founded in its current form in 2016, with historical roots traced to 1765). Poland has been successfully raising its economic profile since its embrace of market economy in the 1990s; it has also risen militarily since joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organizations (NATO) in 1999, followed by several distinct stages of militaristic reforms and investments.

Dr. Piyush Mathur is a Research Scholar at Ronin Institute, and the author of Technological forms and ecological communication: A theoretical heuristic (Lexington Books, 2017). Check out his list of informative videos on the Israel-Palestine history by clicking here.

Main reference:

Wysokiński, Kamil (November 2023, Issue 106) ‘Potential implications of the Israel-Hamas conflict’ (Asia Research Centre Brief) Centre for Security Studies, War Studies University, Warsaw, Poland.

Background material:

Fox News (November 9, 2023) ‘Benjamin Netanyahu: A cease-fire means surrender to Hamas’
[Virtual interview: https://www.foxnews.com/video/6340829324112 ]

France Médias Monde (November 22, 2023) ‘Palestinian Authority leader Abbas faces public anger amid Israel-Hamas war’
[ https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231022-gaza-war-heaps-pressure-on-palestinian-president-abbas ]

Goldenberg, Tia (March 7, 2023) ‘Netanyahu’s planned judicial overhaul divides Israeli military’ Associated Press
[ https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/netanyahus-planned-judicial-overhaul-divides-israeli-military ]

Gormezano, David (November 8, 2023) ‘Can the Palestinian Authority lead a post-Hamas Gaza Strip?’ France Médias Monde
[ https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20231108-can-the-palestinian-authority-lead-a-post-hamas-gaza-strip ]

Pamuk, Humeyra (November 9, 2023) ‘US says Palestinians should govern Gaza after war’ [ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-calls-limits-israeli-control-post-war-gaza-2023-11-09/ ]

Sforza, Lauren (November 6, 2023) ‘These 8 countries have pulled ambassadors from Israel amid Hamas war’ [ https://thehill.com/homenews/4296621-these-8-countries-have-pulled-ambassadors-from-israel-amid-hamas-war/ ]